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Forum für Wissen 2007
Hegg, C.; Rhyner, J. (Red.)
2007:
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen.
Forum für Wissen
2007:
96 S.
CHF 0.00
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Willi, H.P.,
2007:
Warnungen und ihre Rolle in der BAFU-Strategie zur Gefahrenprävention.
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
7-9.
Abstract
Warning and its role in the BAFU strategy for hazard prevention.
The worst storm event in the last 100 years caused 3 billion CHF in damage. The damage in the private sector was unusually large (2.5 billion CHF). First analyses showed the value of warning systems, however weak points are apparent. One week after the flood the Federal Council decided to strengthen the hazard prevention and established the new Federal Office for the Environment. The Federal Council delivered a mandate to evaluate the status of warning and alert systems. Current experience shows that a very large potential for improvement is available in the field of warning and alarm systems. Due to the high level of effectiveness, the improvement of warning at the federal level has been assigned the highest priority. Hazard maps are an indispensable prerequisite basis for this purpose.
Keywords
warning, natural hazards, potential for improvement, federal strategy
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Rhyner, J.,
2007:
Lawinenwarnung Schweiz - Komponenten eines bewährten Warnsystems.
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
11-18.
Abstract
Avalanche warning - components of a well-established warning system.
Avalanche research and forecast have been initiated in the early 1930ies. Switzerland has played a pioneering role in the field ever since. Long term research in snow physics and mechanics have lead to a good understanding of avalanche formation mechanisms, enabling a daily forecast that is widely accepted among tourists as well as professional safety responsibles as a useful decision support.
A successful avalanche warning system is based on a series of different ingredients. The most basic ones are a high quality meteorological forecast and an observation and measurement network that provides additional snow and avalanche specific informations. These data are one hand utilized by the national avalanche warning service at SLF for the daily forecast, and on the other hand directly by the avalanche safety services. Fast and easy communication paths are important to move the information as directly as possible to the potential users. A crit
Keywords
natural hazards, avalanche, snow, forecast, warning, sensor network
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Rotach, M.W.,
2007:
Neue Entwicklungen in der Wettervorhersage: Potential und Anforderungen für Anwender.
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
19-23.
Abstract
New developments in weather forecasting: potential and requirements for users.
In this contribution recent methods and approaches in weather prediction are presented and discussed. A particular focus is given to upgrading of products from Numerical Weather Prediction by the forecasters. For some years the uncertainty, which is intrinsically inherent in any forecast for a natural system, is being
quantified using so-called Ensemble Predictions. These yield besides the usual
forecast ("Tomorrow, weather element X will assume the value Y") additional
information concerning the reliability of this prediction ("This value can be
expected with a probability of Z percent"). This new approach not only requires adaptations in the forecast methodology on the side of the forecasters themselves. End users as well will have to get familiar with the methodology and its potential, and they will have to find strategies on how to include this additional information in the context of their practical work.
Keywords
weather prediction, ensemble prediction, reliability of forecast, natural hazards, deterministic chaos
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Zappa, M.; Vogt, S.,
2007:
Hochwasser-Vorhersagesysteme der neusten Generation im Praxis-Test.
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
25-31.
Abstract
A demonstration phase for next generation flood forecasting systems.
The gains by the scientific community in the forecasting of severe weather events and floods over the last decade has allowed the development of a new generation of flood warning systems which can provide reliable estimations of the discharge hydrograph with short-term (1-2 days) and mid-term (3-5 days) lead times. In the framework of the 2007 MAP D-PHASE project, such systems were first tested in real time. During this operational benchmarking, it was possible to force hydrological models with data from ensemble numerical weather prediction systems. An additional innovation in the nowcasting of flood events is the adoption of new quantitative estimations of precipitation from radar systems.
Such efforts are necessary in order to improve the communication of uncertainty between the modellers and the warning agencies and between the warning
agencies and the task forces who are responsible for flood mitigation. More than 30 Swiss end-use
Keywords
floods, forecasting, nowcasting, MAP D-PHASE, end-user
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Stähli, M.; Bartelt, P.,
2007:
Von der Auslösung zur Massenbewegung.
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
33-38.
Abstract
From the triggering to the mass movement.
Shallow landslides, debris flows and snow avalanches are similar with regard to their initiation and propagation. Normally, they are triggered by a temporary surplus of water or snow in critical slope positions. Once in movement, the mass flows downwards according to its fluid and friction properties. Although the basic principles of rapid mass movements are known, there are still significant uncertainties in the temporal and spatial triggering of such slope instabilities and the role of the meteorological influences. In order to improve our understanding of the triggering mechanisms and the transition to the rapid mass movement, the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL is currently developing new theories and modelling approaches, in the context of a new poly-project of the ETH Competence Centre of Environment and Sustainability. Here, we present examples of such novel approaches: a three-dimensional hydrological hillslope model, a landslide model based on the theo
Keywords
rapid mass movements, debris flows, landslides, snow avalanches, self-organized criticality, triggering conditions
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Lehning, M.; Bavay, M.; Löwe, H.; Parlange, M.; Aberer, K.,
2007:
Das Swiss Experiment und die Zukunft der Vorhersage von alpinen Naturgefahren.
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
39-45.
Abstract
The Swiss Experiment and future predictions of alpine natural hazards.
Increasing environmental problems worldwide and the associated increasing awareness of global environmental change in our societies clearly show the need to build a new community of collaboration between the public, environmental scientists and administration. This should lead to a new and better way to conduct environmental science and environment-related decision making. An important part of this is prediction and warning of natural hazards. The lead idea here is that flexible methods of risk management need to be deployed to deal with potentially changing and more extreme events. The Swiss Experiment (SwissEx) will be an important trigger for creating the new community of collaboration and a building block to construct prediction systems of small scale Alpine natural hazards.
In the Swiss Experiment, multidisciplinary environmental observations based on new sensor and data technology will make it possible to achieve an affordable yet
Keywords
prediction, natural hazard, flood, debris flow, avalanche, alpine terrain, modelling, sensor networks
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Hegg, C.,
2007:
Warnungen - notwendige aber nicht hinreichende Bedingung für erfolgreiche Interventionen zur Schadensbegrenzung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen.
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
47-51.
Abstract
Warning - necessary but insufficient conditions for successful intervention to minimize damage during catastrophic events.
In Switzerland many different institutions distribute warnings or similar information. This information is distributed with little coordination resulting in a situation that is especially for those annoying dealing with natural hazards professionally. To improve this situation the author suggests that in all information about upcoming events hazard levels are integrated. These hazard levels enable trained specialists to gather first key information and to prepare for further actions that might become necessary in the further course of an event. For a successful implementation all relevant partners have to be involved and the scientific basis for forecasting and warning has to be improved.
Keywords
natural hazards, warning, intervention, uncertainties, optimization, warning levels
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Marktplatz Beiträge
Binder, P.,
2007:
Die Warnungen der MeteoSchweiz.
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
55-58.
Abstract
Weather warnings of MeteoSwiss.
High Impact Weather Warnings are one of the basic public services for the well-being of the population of Switzerland. The Federal Law on Meteorology and Climatology states that the Swiss Confederation should issue warnings in case of dangerous weather conditions. This important task has been given to the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss.
High impact weather and other warnings - eg. frost or road warnings - are transmitted by means of all relevant communication channels such as telephone, internet, e-Mail and mobile phones to ensure that all civil protection organisations, the media and a growing part of the general public can be directly provided with the warnings issued by MeteoSwiss.
Keywords
MeteoSwiss, high impact weather, road conditions, thunderstorm, warnings, public services, civil protection
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Schug, J.,
2007:
Meteocentrale: Die neue Schweizer Unwetterzentrale.
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
59-61.
Abstract
Meteocentrale: The new Swiss severe weather centre.
The new Swiss severe weather warning centre (www.meteocentrale.ch) started operation in December 2006. A team of five skilled meteorologists is exclusively monitoring and forecasting weather in Switzerland on a 24 h/7 d basis. A plethora of technical devices (radar, satellite, lightning detection, cell-tracking) and, above all, model data help the forecaster. The mesoscale models from UK Met Office (NAE and NX with a 4 x 4 km grid) are mainly used.
Forecaster issues warning in principle (e.g. for small-scale thunderstorms) for the more than 2000 Swiss communities, which are combined to about 151 warning areas. Warning tresholds a clearly defined and revisable by everybody. Warnings and weather reviews are in four languages.
The installation of new stations (100 in the year 2007, further 100 in the year 2008) provide the weather data in high temporal and local resolution, necessary for serious weather warning but provide also insight into unknown meteorolo
Keywords
Meteocentrale, severe weather, warning, forecast, thunderstorm, hail, heavy rain
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Bucheli, T.; Zogg, J.,
2007:
WETTERALARM - eine Dienstleistung von SF Meteo, den kantonalen Gebäudeversicherungen und der Schweizerischen Mobiliar.
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
63-64.
Abstract
WETTERALARM - a product of SF Meteo, the Cantonal Insurances of Buildings and the Swiss Mobiliar Insurance Company.
The subscribers of WETTERALARM will get an SMS as soon as severe weather is approaching. For different weather types such as frost, thunderstorms, icy roads, snow, rain and wind there are warnings on 3 different levels, depending on the
potential for damage. The purpose of WETTERALARM is to prevent damage, therefore the SMS are accompanied by helpful hints to provide for the risk.
Keywords
weather alarm, storm warning by SMS, damage prevention, property insurance, SF Meteo, Schweirzer Mobiliar insurance, behavioral advices in case of storms, protection from storms, local storm warning, Swiss storm service
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Schmid, W.,
2007:
Standortabhängige Wetterwarnungen mit Raincast.
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
65-67.
Abstract
Warnings of local weather events with Raincast.
The public calls for "perfect" weather warnings. Weather experts know that 100 % perfect weather forecasts and warnings are not possible. In order to deal with this contradiction, we propose the use of Raincast which has been developed for
location-dependent risk forecasts and warnings of relevant weather elements, e.g., hail and heavy rainfall in summer, and snowfall and icing in winter. The technique extrapolates radar images up to 2 hours into the future and uses the estimated
forecast errors, together with additional data, for retrieving the risk factors. The computing time is short, and all desired risk factors are available for the user in
time steps of 5 minutes. The tool is in operation since 1999 for a large and increasing number of applications. Extensions and improvements of the technique are done continuously. A new algorithm will be introduced soon. We expect a
marked improvement of the short-term forecasts of local events.
Keywords
raincast, radar, risk forecasts, warnings, heavy rainfall, hail, snowfall
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Bürgi, T.; Sigrist, B.; Streit, D.,
2007:
Hydrologische Produkte des Bundesamtes für Umwelt - BAFU - bei Hochwasser.
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
68-73.
Abstract
Hydrological Products during floods provided by the Federal Office for the
Environment - FOEN.
The products and services of the National Hydrological Survey at the Federal Office for the Environment are individually described. The panoply includes Online-data, data transfer of real-time data by mobilephone, daily hydrological forecasts and flood warnings as well as alerts in case of sudden water level rises. Additionally during flood situations the Survey offers professional consultancy, background information and preparation of special reports and
evaluations of the current situation.
Keywords
floods, forecasting, warning, alarm, alert, real-time data/online data
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Romang, H.; Zappa, M.; Hegg, C.; Rhyner, J.,
2007:
IFKIS-Hydro.
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
75-78.
Abstract
IFKIS-Hydro. In order to reduce damage due to floods and debris flows, not only preventive measures but also interventions such as temporary deflection dikes are required. This challenge of emergency management may be met largely by an early warning system. IFKIS-Hydro is an information and warning system for hydrological hazards in small and medium scale catchments. It collects data such as weather forecasts, precipitation measurements, discharge simulations and local observations. In addition, IFKIS-Hydro incorporates a web-based information-platform called InfoManager, which serves as a central hub for the submission and oversight of the data. Special emphasis ought to be given to local information. This is gathered by measuring stations in more remote areas on the one hand, and by observers on the other hand. The inclusion of specialised local personnel is a must as they have much responsibility, both for the interpretation of the data and the realization of the intervention.
Keywords
floods, early warning, information system, emergency management
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Jordan, F.; Boillat, J.-L.; García Hernández, J.; Dubois, J.; Schleiss, A.J.,
2007:
Aide à la décision en situation de crue: le cas du Rhône en Valais.
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
79-83.
Abstract
Real-time decision-making during floods: application to the upper rhone river in Switzerland.
The influence of hydroelectricity multireservoir systems on the peak discharge in rivers during floods can be significant. When the surfaces drained by the accumulation reservoirs and their own available storage volume before the flood are important, the reservoir routing effect can reduce the flood damages along the water courses downstream. However, the reduction of the peak flow during such events strongly depends on the water releases through turbines, bottom outlets or spillways achieved by the dam operators.
In order to optimize the protection effect due to reservoir routing during floods, the use of a discharge forecast system gives the required information about the hydrological situation in the catchment area and provides to the decision-maker a general view and a predicted evolution of the discharges in the river network. When coupled to an optimization tool, it is possible to directly highlight the key-v
Keywords
flood forecast, multireservoir systems, storage hydropower plants,
decision-making, reservoir routing, Switzerland
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Rohrer, M.,
2007:
Interface zwischen meteorologischer und hydrologischer Vorhersage.
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
85-86.
Abstract
Interface between hydrological and meteorological forecast.
The responsible authorities for flood warning rely on an adequate lead time in
order to be able to take appropriate action (stand-by, alert, alarm, ...). In alpine head watersheds - with their short lead times - it is impossible to take these timely actions without the incorporation of meteorological forecast models in flood
forecasts.
A suitable interface between meteorological and hydrological forecasts is a
prerequisite to increase credibility of flood warnings.
Keywords
flood warning systems, meteorological forecast models, hydrological forecasts, emergency task forces
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Fuchs, M.,
2007:
Hochwasserschutzkonzept Reuss Realp (UR).
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
87-90.
Abstract
Flood protection concept for Realp (Switzerland).
In Realp (canton Uri, Switzerland) inundations can take place if the river Reuss has a high water level (> HQ50, depending upon sediment discharge). Such situations can happen rather fast and unexpectedly. In order to prevent inundations, temporary safety measures for buildings are installed.
For the monitoring of the water level of the river Reuss and the alerting of the task forces, different measuring instruments were installed. For preliminary
warning in the catchment area, precipitation and temperature measuring points were built.
The measuring data are transferred by means of light wave cables and/or GSM connection to a computer in the train station of Realp. Beside the automated
evaluations, visualizations and alerting on location, the data will be led to the
specialist department of the canton in a later project phase. Thus both local as well as superordinate decision makers are supplied with the relevant flood data in the demanded time intervals,
Keywords
temporary safety measures, preliminary warning, automated evaluations, relevant flood data
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Rhyner, J.; Bürgi, T.; Rauh, P.; Murer, D.,
2007:
GIN - Gemeinsame Informationsplattform Naturgefahren.
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
91-92.
Abstract
GIN - Common Information Platform Natural Hazards.
In Switzerland, there are three institutions responsible for forecast and warning of natural hazards in Switzerland. These are MeteoSwiss (weather), the Federal Agency for Environment (floods) and the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF (avalanches). GIN is the Common Natural Hazard Information Platform ("Gemeinsame Informationsplattform Naturgefahren") to be developed and operated by the three institutions. The GIN should meet the general demand for natural hazards safety managers to have the data and information bulletins of the three institutions available in a compact way on a "single screen".
Keywords
natural hazards, forecast, warning, information platform
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Schuler, L.,
2007:
Die Wirksamkeit von Warnsystemen durch Simulation erhöhen.
Warnung bei aussergewöhnlichen Naturereignissen. Forum für Wissen
2007:
93-96.
Abstract
Enhancing the efficacy of warning systems by computer simulation.
Warning systems are often complex networks of measurement devices, communication lines, decision makers, and measures to be taken. While the single units are reasonably designed, the overall performance of the whole system is often hard to estimate, especially when challenged with exceptional events.
Computer simulation is a means of assessing such situations. The warning system is subjected to a large number of (potentially dangerous) scenarios in order to discover and eliminate weaknesses and flaws. Moreover, potential counter-measures can be simulated to find the most effective actions to be taken when warnings are raised.
This concept is applied to the Flarm collision avoidance system used in glider planes in Europe. It is shown that the system breakdown is far beyond common volume of traffic. Moreover, improvements are suggested to further increase safety. Future changes can be tested in the simulation prior to release.
While the concept
Keywords
warning system, computer simulation, safety, effectiveness, counter-measures, improvement
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