Hydrological Forecasts

Dr. Massimiliano Zappa

The research group «Hydrological Forecasts» investigates the spatio-temporal distribution and variability of the available natural water resources in mountainous basins and in larger alpine river systems.

A particular focus will be put on the analysis of extreme situations such as floods [Dossier floods, in German]and persisting droughts [Dossier Drought]. This is achieved by both analysis of previous events (e.g. the flood of August 2005 in Switzerland) and investigations with simulations and statistical evaluation of long term data series.

The group develops models and operational system for flood warning in gauges and ungauged basins [Teaser]. Thereby we try to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts by assimilation of updated observations (e.g. snow cover maps and runoff volumes).

Furthermore distributed hydrological simulations are adopted for estimating possible hydrological impacts of climate change [Dossier Climate Change, in german].

In addition WSL updates since more than 30 years a database containing a detailed description of the major damages triggered by hydrological hazards. These records could represent an important source of information for the assessment of hydrology related hazards maps.

Projects

• Operational flood forecasting for the Sihl and the Ticino rivers
  Contact: M. Zappa
• IFKIS-HYDRO – Regional Flood Warning for Mountainous Basins
  Kontakt: M. Zappa
• IMPRINTS - IMproving Preparedness and RIsk maNagemenT for flash floods and debriS flow events [Movies]
  Contact: M. Zappa, K. Liechti
• DROUGHT-CH - A NRP61-Project on "Early recognition of critical drought conditions in Switzerland - coping with shortages in soil moisture, groundwater and runoff"
  Contact: F.Fundel, S. Jörg-Hess, M. Zappa
• PACC-PERU und ANDES+ -Climate Change Adaptation Plan in Peru
  Kontakt: M. Zappa, N. Andres
  
• Swiss flood and landslide damage database
  Contact: N. Andres
  
• CCHydro: Climate change and water resources
  Contact: L. Bernhard, M. Zappa
• Climate change and hydropower production
  Contact: M. Zappa
• Influence of Climate Change on the Water Cycle in Forest Ecosystems - A Plausibility Analysis
  Contact: L. Bernhard
• "Swiss Study Guide" - Overview on education on natural hazards in Switzerland
  Contact: N. Andres

Running Thesis

• PHD: Käthi Liechti, Uncertainty propagation in operational flash flood forecasting systems (tentative title), Prof. J. Seibert - University of Zürich.
• PHD: Stefanie Hess, Towards Operational Monthly Predictions of Critical Water Resources Anomalies in the Swiss Alps (tentative title), Prof. S. Seneviratne - ETH Zürich
• MsC: Julia Franzen, Neue Regulierung des Sihlsees im Hinblick auf dem Hochwasserschutz, Prof. P. Burlando - ETH Zürich.
• MsC: Paul Schattan, Waldveränderung und Wasserhaushalt - Ein Konzeptstudie, Prof. Diekkrüger - UNI Bonn.
  
• MsC: Stephan Hemri, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) of Stream Flow Forecasts, Prof. H. Künsch - ETH Zürich.
• 2012-2013: Christoph Pflugshaupt, Hydrological resources for energy production in Switzerland: A study based on the CH2011 scenarios, [starts in September 2012], ETH Zürich.