EcoChange Case study Aarau

As part of the EU-Research project Ecochange we model potential land use change and its effect on ecosystem goods and services and biodiversity for the period 2010-2050 for a small case study area near the city of Aarau, Switzerland.

In thirteen municipalities from Herznach to Aarau and further to Kölliken, we develop potential futures for the enxt 40 years. Climate change, biodiversity loss, economy and politics will likely impact the region. To capture these effects, agent based modeling methods (ABM) are combined with an Integrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA). Similar cases studies are conducted in Belgium and Rumania. 

Currently, the Agent based model (ABM) is developed for Switzerland and the other case studies. Interviews with 24 farmers were conducted in the Aarau case study region in winter 2009. From these interviews, decision patterns and preferences about ecosystem goods and services are derived. In 2010 further Interviews are conducted to derive model parameters. In addition to the decision patters of farmer the model relies on inputs derived from, for example, spatial planning, agricultural policy and cultural trends.

In summer 2009 we conducted a scenario workshop with experts from agriculture, forestry, politics and administration. The goal of the workshop was to downscale three general scenarios of future development and adapt them to regional characteristics.

Soon we will be able to use the model to analyze how farmers and other decision makers will act in the three alternative futures and estimate the effects of the resulting land change on ecosystem goods and services and biodiversity.