Fire regimes and forest dynamics: a study of spatio-temporal ecosystem processes in the Valais (Switzerland) using historical ecology and modeling

Photo: M. Conedera (WSL)

In many eco-regions of the world, fires are a major driver of vegetation development. Global warming is likely to change fire frequency and intensity at the regional scale, thus causing vegetation shifts. In regions where forest fires so far have played only a minor role, they may become a key element determining vegetation composition, landscape dynamics and ecosystem functions. However, fire regimes, i.e., the spatial extent, intensity, and frequency of fires, are determined by many factors in addition to climate.

Human activities, vegetation composition and structure, fuel load, and landscape patterns also have to be taken into consideration to determine fire risk. Understanding and disentangling the various factors that are crucial for shaping the current fire regime and for predicting the likely future fire regime thus requires a multi-faceted approach. In the proposed project, we intend to analyze the past, present, and future fire regimes of a region that is likely to become more fire-prone in the future, i.e., the Canton of Valais (Switzerland), a dry, interior valley of the European Alps. Specifically, we will assess the relative impacts of climate, vegetation properties and human activities on the fire regime.

Project aims

1. To elucidate the historical (100 to 180 years) patterns of the fire regime in the Valais (Switzerland).
2. To perform an in-depth analysis of the changes of the historical fire regime in space and time.
3. To compare these results with the findings on the fire regime of a neighboring region, the Ticino (Switzerland).

Whereas one thesis focuses on the historical aspects, an other thesis, located at the ETH aims at using these data to test and improve the LANDCLIM model with respect to (a) its accuracy for historical and current climate and land-use conditions of the Valais and (b) its ability to project future changes in the fire regime in the Valais and the European Alps in general.

Participants

• Thomas Zumbrunnen (Ph.D. student)
  
• Matthias Bürgi
• Marco Condedera
• Harald Bugmann (ETH Zürich)
  

Link

• Homepage of the research team "Historical ecology"
  

Kontakt

• Matthias Bürgi
  

• Marco Conedera