CCES Extremes - spatial extremes and environmental sustainability

WSL contribution to the project 'Spatial extremes and environmental sustainability: Statistical methods and applications in geophysics and the environment'  of the 'Competence Centre for Enviromnent and Sustainability' of the ETH Domain (CCES EXTREMES)

Abstract of CCES Extremes

Rare events can have catastrophic consequences for human activities, through their impacts on health and on the natural and constructed environments. It is widely believed that the frequency of such events–avalanches, floods, heat waves, and so forth–is increasing as a result of climatic and other changes, yet they are hard to predict and their effects are poorly-understood. Recent developments in the statistics of extremes and the increased availability of relevant high-quality data have the potential both to deepen our grasp of the underlying physical phenomena, and to aid in the construction of models and tools for forecasting the occurrence and impact of extreme events. The purpose of this proposal is to enable scientists from a variety of disciplines within the ETH domain to work together to improve our understanding of extreme environmental events, with emphasis on avalanches, precipitation, temperature extremes, earthquake risk, and stratospheric ozone. The intention is to undertake methodological development in spatiotemporal statistical analysis of extremes, and to apply the results to these different domains of application, in order to obtain the best predictive models achievable. Work will also be undertaken on the limits of predictability of extreme events, in order to classify those which arise due to endogenous and/or exogeneous influences. Key elements of the proposal are transfer of knowledge and technology between various parts of the the ETH domain, involvement of acknowledged external experts, the active training of post-docs and graduate students, and the transfer of the new scientific and data-analytic technologies to practical applications at the federal and cantonal level.

Keywords:

Precipitation, Temperature, Earthquakes, Avalanches, Trends, Statistical theory of extremes, Spatial statistics, Climate and Environmental Change, Hazards, Risk

Partners:

Prof. Dr. A. Davison, Institute of Mathematics, Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne EPFL.
Prof. M. Parlange, EPFL.
Prof. C. Ancey, EPFL.
Prof. D. Sornette, ETHZ.
Dr. S. Wiemer, Swiss Seismological Service.
Prof. J. Staehlin, ETHZ.
Dr. M. Lehning, WSL.
Dr. M. Schneebeli, WSL.