Impacts of Climate Change and Environmental Risk Assessment

Spatially and temporally explicit vegetation models were used to evaluate potential long-term vegetation changes in mountain forests and alpine grasslands of Central Europe as a result of climate change. Potential impacts of short-term effects such as windthrow, fire, erosion, avalanches or pathogens cannot be simulated with the proposed models. The two numerical forest models both agree that under warmer conditions the vegetation belt that is dominated by deciduous species will shift to higher elevations. As a consequence the vegetation belt dominated by conifers will be reduced in area. Under an assumed temperature increase without simultaneous increase in precipitation, Fagus-dominated communities in the colline-submontane belt might eventually be replaced by oak-horn-beam (Carpinion) communities. We further checked the adaptation potential of todays forests to climate change, evaluated potential impacts on species diversity and did preliminary studies on risk perception by practitioners and common people.
For more information on this topic please contact Felix Kienast.

There is intensive collaboration with different European/Swiss research teams (EU-project FOREST) on potentially climate-induced timberline changes by using paleoclimatological proxies (pollen, tree-rings). We develop an empirically derived spatially explicit model on potential timberline shifts that will serve as a tool to estimate potential biomass gains with global warming.
For more information on this topic please contact Felix Kienast.

Key references:
Brzeziecki, B., Kienast, F., Wildi, O. 1994: Potential impacts of a changing climate on the vegetation cover of Switzerland: a simulation experiment using GIS technology. In: Price, M., and Heywood, D.I. (eds.) 'Mountain environments & Geographic Information Systems. Taylor and Francis, London, pp. 263 - 279.

Brzeziecki, B., Kienast, F., Wildi, O., 1995: Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of zonal forest communities in Switzerland. Journal of Vegetation Science 6: 257 - 268.

Kienast, F., Brzeziecki, B., 1994: Wo wächst bei einer Temperaturerhöhung um 2oC der Wein in der Schweiz? Informationsblatt des Forschungsbereiches Landschaft 22: 1-2.

Kienast, F., Brzeziecki, B., Wildi, O., 1996: Long-term adaptation potential of Central European mountain forests to climate change: a GIS-assisted sensitivity assessment. Forest Ecology and Management 80: 133-153.

Kienast, F., Kräuchi, N., 1992: Wie sieht die zukünftige Vegetation der Schweiz aus? Informationsblatt des Forschungsbereiches Landschaft 13: 1-2,4.

Kienast, F., Wildi, O., Brzeziecki, B., (in press): Potential impacts of climate change on species richness in mountain forests - an ecological risk assessment. Biological Conservation.



© WSL 1999 / F. Kienast / Last Update: 3.9.99