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Spatial modelling of insect pests under future climate change


Pest species from all over the world might get widespread by global trading and establish themselves due to more suitable climates in new regions. Therefore, pressure from pests on crop plants will increase with climate change, thus requiring adaptation of crop protection measures. The development of these measures is supported by quantitative information on the future proliferation and spread of pests and pathogenic agents. The goal of this project is to use current climate scenarios and contemporary spatial modelling approaches to prepare scenarios for the development and spread of certain harmful organisms relevant to the Swiss agricultural sector. Developing spatial models for the surveillance of insect pest species that are expected to invade Switzerland under future climate change and the evaluation of the circumstances under which they could threaten the Swiss agriculture is crucial in order to work on protection strategies.