We will 1. apply LPJ-GM, a DGVM that simulates species migration, in an ensemble study to estimate the range of future shifts of tree in Europe, under scenarios of climate and land use change, and dispersal limitation. 2. extend LPJ-GM by a simple, generic module for the dynamics and spread of interacting species, based on food or host availability, environmental suitability, demography and spread rate. This extension will enable us to simulate population dynamics of non-tree species together with their impact on the simulated vegetation. We will validate the so extended model (LPJ-GMINT) with data for past and current pest invasions, e.g. the ash dieback or the Dutch elm disease. 3. parametrize and run simulations with LPJ-GMINT with species differing in dispersal, life history and interaction with the vegetation. Potential candidate species are a) the Asian Longhorned Beetle, b) the truffle, and c) Baccharis spicata, a highly competitive invasive shrub.
2019 - 2023