Time-of-emergence of novel climates for North American migratory bird populations

Frank La Sorte
Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA

To better understand the ecological implications of global climate change for species that display geographically dynamic life-history strategies, we need to determine where and when novel climates are projected to first emerge across their annual life cycles. In this talk, I will explore how passerine bird species that migrate within the Western Hemisphere are associated with projected novel climates across the full annual cycle. First, I will use a multivariate approach to estimate two novelty metrics: (1) the probability of novel climates developing during this century, and (2) the time-of-emergence of novel climates during the next three centuries. I will then intersect these estimates with weekly estimates of relative abundance for 77 migratory bird species generated using observations from the eBird citizen-science database. My results emphasize the large seasonal and spatial variation in the formation of novel climates, and the pronounced challenges migratory birds are likely to encounter during this century. Within the Western Hemisphere, this is projected to be especially pronounced on species’ tropical wintering grounds and during the transition from breeding to migration. When assessing the ecological implications of climate change for highly mobile taxa, my results emphasize the value of applying a seasonal perspective using standardized metrics that promotes comparisons across space and time

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