SSP-CH: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Switzerland

What will Switzerland look like in 2100? What will influence our society at the end of the 21st century?

Socio-economic systems are complex. They are non-linear, disruptive, have feedback loops and tipping points, their development is uncertain and difficult to predict. The future can neither be observed nor measured. Scenarios that describe possible futures are therefore increasingly being used to develop long-term strategies and as a basis for decision-making. Scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but "a plausible and simplified description of how the future might unfold based on a coherent and consistent set of assumptions about the key driving forces and relationships".

Based on focus discussions with 59 experts from 20 scientific institutions in Switzerland and five workshops with almost 90 participants from German-speaking and French-speaking Switzerland, we have developed five socio-economic scenarios of how Switzerland could develop up to the year 2100. The scenarios are consistent, plausible compositions of possible developments. They cover a broad future space.

The Socio-Economic Scenarios for Switzerland project is funded by the National Centre for Climate Services NCCS and carried out within the framework of the program "Decision-making basis for dealing with climate change in Switzerland" (NCCS-Impacts).

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways were created for the 6th IPCC report. They describe five different possible global futures of our society in the 21st century and this in the area of tension between the challenges of climate protection and climate adaptation. For these five narratives, the population, gross domestic product and degree of urbanization (at country level) as well as the areas of energy use, land use, emissions and air pollutants (for 5 world regions) were modelled. All data can be obtained from the IIASA database.

The global SSPs (basic SSPs) are supplemented by a large number of national, regional or sector-specific SSPs (extended SSPs).

The five narratives describe the following possible socio-economic futures:

SSP1: Sustainable and cooperative society with a low-carbon economy and high adaptability to structural disruptions and readiness for transformation. (Minor challenge in climate protection and adaptation)

SSP2: Continue as before: Moderate economic growth, continued use of fossil fuels. Environmental pollution continues. (Medium challenge in climate protection and adaptation)

SSP3: Increasing protectionism, deglobalization and competition. Demand for resources is high, power imbalances and conflicts arise. (Major challenge in climate change mitigation and adaptation)

SSP4: Unequal distribution of resources between and within countries. Consequences range from weak social cohesion to unrest. (Minor challenge in climate protection and major challenge in climate adaptation)

SSP5: Technology-dependent world with a globalized, fast-growing economy, highly dependent on fossil fuels. (Major challenge in climate protection and minor challenge in climate adaptation)