Effects of climate change on ecosystem services in Switzerland ¶

Ecosystem services in Switzerland are diverse: forests protect against natural hazards, agricultural land produces food, and water bodies are of central importance for drinking water supply. Climate change is altering these services to varying degrees depending on the region and duration. Interactive appsfor the forestry, agriculture, and water sectors visualize these changes across space and time under different climate scenarios. A cross-sector dashboard highlights which regions of Switzerland are particularly affected by climate change.

The project and the apps are based on the CH2018 generation of climate scenarios. Accordingly, they also show the impacts of the high-emissions scenario RCP8.5, which is now considered unlikely (see the MeteoSwiss blog; DE, FR, IT). Nevertheless, the impacts discussed under the RCP8.5 scenario remain relevant for the following reasons:

1. Time Horizon 2060: In NCCS-Impacts, the focus is on the period around the year 2060. For this timeframe, the choice of emissions scenario still plays a secondary role. The average change values according to RCP8.5 in 2060 fall within a range that could also be reached under a more moderate emissions trajectory.
2. Consistency with CH2025: With the focus on 2060 under RCP8.5, we are looking at a world that is approximately 3 degrees warmer than pre-industrial times. The local change signals for 2060 according to CH2018 are consistent with the signals of a 3-degree world from the latest generation of scenarios, Klima CH2025, but indicate slightly less warming.
3. Robust Risk Management: In risk assessment, scenarios serve as tools to illustrate the range of plausible developments. Decision-makers can then base their planning – depending on individual protection needs – within this range.

• Climate change affects ecosystem services both directly (e.g., through rising temperatures or changes in precipitation) and indirectly (e.g., through changes in land use).
• The direct consequences of climate change on the various ecosystem services vary greatly and also differ in severity. 
• The rapidly changing climatic conditions may exceed the capacity of many ecosystems to adapt to the new conditions.
• In general, the negative effects on ecosystem services predominate, although there are also winners (e.g., increased agricultural yields for certain crops). 
• Adaptation measures can only be assessed on a case-by-case basis.

Interactive apps visualize climate-related changes by sector under climate scenarios with and without global climate protection for the period 2045–2074. The dashboard provides a comprehensive overview of Switzerland as a whole.

• Agroscope (Pierluigi Calanca, Marcio Dos Reis Martins, Kevin Kramer, Chloé Wüst)
• EBP Switzerland AG (Remo Röthlin, Nina Kaczmarek, Andreas Zysset)
• ETH Zurich, Department of Environmental Sciences, Chair of Forest Ecology, ETHZ (Harald Bugmann, Ulrike Hiltner)
• University of Geneva, Institute of Environmental Sciences (Anthony Lehmann, Cécilia Barouillet, Sibylle Stöckli)
• WSL, Forest Dynamics Research Unit (Arthur Gessler, Micah Wilhelm)