Hydrological ensemble for high- and low-flows in Switzerland (Hydro-SMILE)

Both droughts and floods are expected to change in severity and frequency in a future climate. An improved understanding of the probability of such extreme events, especially the very severe ones, under future climate conditions is crucial to develop sustainable adaptation measures. However, assessing future changes in the most severe hydrological extreme events is challenging because it requires large simulation ensembles that allow us to disentangle the response of these extreme events to climate change from their large natural variability. A particular type of large ensemble that enables such distinction is Single Model Initial condition Large Ensembles (SMILEs). To date, few studies have combined atmospheric SMILEs with hydrological models to obtain a SMILE of streamflow time series, i.e. a 'Hydro-SMILE'. This project aims to quantify changes in high-end droughts and floods and their uncertainty for hydrological Switzerland in a warming climate by generating a Hydro-SMILE.