Dr. Paul Astagneau

• Hydrology
• Floods
• Hydrological modelling
• Climate change impact assessments on hydrological extremes
• Hydrological extremes in mountain regions
• Flood forecasting

from 10/2023: PostDoc, WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF and ETH Zurich, Hydrology & Climate Impacts Group, Davos, Switzerland

03/2023 - 09/2023: PostDoc, National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment INRAE, Catchment Hydrology Group, Antony, France

09/2019 - 12/2022: PhD student, Sorbonne University and INRAE, Catchment Hydrology Group, Paris, France

• 09/2019 - 12/2022: PhD in Hydrology, Sorbonne University and INRAE Antony, Catchment Hydrology Group
  PhD Thesis: Improving the generality and effectiveness of an operational flood forecasting model.  https://theses.hal.science/tel-04028903v1 
• 09/2014 - 09/2019: Master of Engineering in Geosciences, Sorbonne University
  Master's Thesis: Comparison of hydrological modelling R packages. https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03266100v1 

Astagneau, P. C., Wood, R. R., Vrac, M., Kotlarski, S., Vaittinada Ayar, P., François, B., and Brunner, M. I.: Impact of bias adjustment strategy on ensemble projections of hydrological extremes, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 29, 5695–5718, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5695-2025, 2025a.

Astagneau, P. C., Bourgin, F., Andréassian, V., and Perrin, C.: Improving the structure of a hydrological model to forecast catchment response to intense rainfall, LHB, 110, https://doi.org/10.1080/27678490.2024.2341027, 2024b.

Astagneau, P. C., Bourgin, F., Andréassian, V., and Perrin, C.: Lead-time-dependent calibration of a flood forecasting model, Journal of Hydrology, 644, 132119, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132119, 2024a.

Payrastre, O., Nicolle, P., Bonnifait, L., Brigode, P., Astagneau, P. C., Baise, A., Belleville, A., Bouamara, N., Bourgin, F., Breil, P., Brunet, P., Cerbelaud, A., Courapied, F., Devreux, L., Dreyfus, R., Gaume, E., Nomis, S., Poggio, J., Pons, F., Rabab, Y., and Sevrez, D.: The 2 October 2020 Alex storm in south-eastern France: a contribution of the scientific community to the flood peak discharges estimation, LHB, 108, https://doi.org/10.1080/27678490.2022.2082891, 2022.

Astagneau, P. C., Bourgin, F., Andréassian, V., and Perrin, C.: Catchment response to intense rainfall: Evaluating modelling hypotheses, Hydrological Processes, 36, e14676, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14676, 2022.

Astagneau, P. C., Thirel, G., Delaigue, O., Guillaume, J. H. A., Parajka, J., Brauer, C. C., Viglione, A., Buytaert, W., and Beven, K. J.: Technical note: Hydrology modelling R packages – a unified analysis of models and practicalities from a user perspective, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25, 3937–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3937-2021, 2021b.

Astagneau, P. C., Bourgin, F., Andréassian, V., and Perrin, C.: When does a parsimonious model fail to simulate floods? Learning from the seasonality of model bias, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 66, 1288–1305, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2021.1923720, 2021a.

Astagneau, P. C., Peters, J., Pool, S., Muñoz-Castro, E., and Brunner, M. I.: RESIdual STability (RESIST) calibration for improved hydrological model time generalizability, Water Resources Research [in revision], https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.175195297.71950418/v1, 2025b.

Muñoz-Castro, E., Anderson, B. J., Astagneau, P. C., Swain, D. L., Mendoza, P. A., and Brunner, M. I.: How well do hydrological models simulate streamflow extremes and drought-to-flood transitions?, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences [in revision], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-781, 2025.

Astagneau, P. C., Wood, R. R., and Brunner, M. I.: Rethinking future flood hazard: Hourly data challenges daily flood projections, Science Advances [under review].

Bohl, J. P., Wood, R. R., Frank, C., Astagneau, P. C., Peters, J., and Brunner, M. I.: Hybrid models generalize better to warmer climate conditions than process-based and purely data-driven models, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences [under review], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5201, 2025.

Clerc-Schwarzenbach, F., Astagneau, P. C., Muñoz Castro, E., van Meerveld, I., Seibert, J., and Andréassian, V.: Cheeky cheating or sensible strategy? ‘Sweep parameters’ in bucket-type hydrological models, Hydrological Processes [under review].

Anderson, B. J.*, Astagneau, P. C.*, Gnann S., and Brunner, M. I.: Time resolution controls perspective on high flow regimes, [in prep]

Lectures

• Hydrological modelling (12/2024, Mountain Hydrology lecture, ETH Zurich)
• Operational hydrology (12/2024, Mountain Hydrology lecture, ETH Zurich)
   

Supervision and co-supervision

• Carole Sattler (ETH Zurich), Master's project: Representation of precipitation extremes in convection- vs. non- convection permitting model simulations, 2024
• Beda Bauer (ETH Zurich), Master's thesis: Evaluating hydrological models simulating drought-to-flood transitions at hourly timestep, 2025.
• Silvan Rusch (ETH Zurich), Master's thesis: Flood Generation Process Variations in Time and Space, 2026
• Maria Grundmann (ETH Zurich), PhD thesis: Drivers and spatio-temporal patterns of riverine heatwaves in Europe

• https://github.com/hydroGR/hydroModPkgR-article
• https://github.com/paulastagneau/RESIST-calibration

Anderson, B. J.*, Astagneau, P. C.*, and Brunner, M. I.: Impact of time aggregation on dominant high-flow regimes, Leonardo Conference, Bologna, 2025.

Astagneau, P. C., Wood, R. R., Vrac, M., Kotlarski, S., Vaittinada Ayar, P., François, B., and Brunner, M. I.: How does the choice of bias adjustment strategy affect ensemble projections of high-flows, Bias correction workshop, Paris, 2025b.

Grundmann, M., Astagneau, P. C., and Brunner, M. I.: Alpine river temperature drivers and riverine heatwaves across Europe, EGU, Vienna, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3220, 2025.

Muñoz-Castro, E., Anderson, B. J., Astagneau, P. C., Mendoza, P. A., Swain, D. L., and Brunner, M. I.: How well can hydrological models simulate drought-to-flood transitions?, EGU, Vienna, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14340, 2025.

Astagneau, P. C., Wood, R. R., and Brunner, M. I.: Earlier emergence of high-flow changes at higher elevations, EGU, Vienna, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3083, 2025a.

Astagneau, P. C., Wood, R. R., Vrac, M., Kotlarski, S., and Brunner, M. I.: Bias adjustment for large climate ensembles to study changes in hydrological extremes, Swiss Geoscience meeting, Basel, 2024b.

Astagneau, P. C., Wood, R., and Brunner, M. I.: Which bias correction methods are suited to represent hydrologic extremes in the Alps?, EGU, Vienna, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6118, 2024a.

Muñoz-Castro, E., Anderson, B., Astagneau, P. C., Janzing, J., Mendoza, P. A., and Brunner, M. I.: The role of meteorological drivers and initial hydrologic conditions on streamflow drought-to-flood transition events, EGU, Vienna, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11499, 2024.

Astagneau, P. C., Bourgin, F., Andréassian, V., Perrin, C., and Brunner, M. I.: Multiobjective calibration forbetter simulation of flash floods, Swiss Geoscience meeting, Mendrisio, 2023b.

Astagneau, P. C., Bourgin, F., Andréassian, V., and Perrin, C.: Estimating the parameters of a flood forecasting model: with or without updating procedures?, EGU, Vienna, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5492, 2023a.

Astagneau, P. C., Bourgin, F., Andréassian, V., and Perrin, C.: Using the information on rainfall intensities to represent the variability in time of dominant processes in a hydrological model, IAHS, Montpellier, https://doi.org/10.5194/iahs2022-60, 2022.

Astagneau, P. C., Bourgin, F., Andréassian, V., and Perrin, C.: Flood simulation errors show an unexpected seasonal trend: results obtained on a set of 229 catchments and 11,054 flood events, EGU, online, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1045, 2021.

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