Dr. Heike Lischke
Function
teamleader, senior scientist
Contact
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL
Zürcherstrasse 111
8903 Birmensdorf
Site
Birmensdorf Bi HL E 30
ResearcherID: J-5719-2013
Research Focus
- Species range dyamics
- Simulation of population dynamics and migration of tree species under changing climate and land use (MEPHYSTO, TreeMig,TreeMig-CH, BBS)
- Spatio-temporal vegetation models
- Model up-scaling
- Development of methods for efficient simulation of tree species spread on large scales (MUSCATELLA, TreeMig)
- Upscaling of stochastic ecological models (TreeMig, MUSCATELLA, MEPHYSTO)
- Feedbacks between vegetation dynamics and...
- ... climate (all projects)
- ... hydrology (CCHYDRO)
- ... natural antagonists (e.g. bark beetle, BARBEEKEY)
- ... avalanches (MOUNTLAND-Treeline)
- ... land use
Products
- Forest landscape model TreeMig
Teaching
FURTHER INFORMATION
Projects
Publications WSL
Scientific publication article peer reviewed
Jakoby, O.; Lischke, H.; Wermelinger, B., 2019: Climate change alters elevational phenology patterns of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus). Global Change Biology, 25, 12: 4048-4063. doi: 10.1111/gcb.14766
Lehsten, V.; Mischurow, M.; Lindström, E.; Lehsten, D.; Lischke, H., 2019: LPJ-GM 1.0: simulating migration efficiently in a dynamic vegetation model. Geoscientific Model Development, 12, 3: 893-908. doi: 10.5194/gmd-12-893-2019
Dormann, C.F.; Bobrowski, M.; Dehling, D.M.; Harris, D.J.; Hartig, F.; Lischke, H.; Moretti, M.D.; Pagel, J.; Pinkert, S.; Schleuning, M.; Schmidt, S.I.; Sheppard, C.S.; Steinbauer, M.J.; Zeuss, D.; Kraan, C., 2018: Biotic interactions in species distribution modelling: 10 questions to guide interpretation and avoid false conclusions. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 27: 1004-1016. doi: 10.1111/geb.12759
Rohner, B.; Waldner, P.; Lischke, H.; Ferretti, M.; Thürig, E., 2018: Predicting individual-tree growth of central European tree species as a function of site, stand, management, nutrient, and climate effects. European Journal of Forest Research, 137: 29-44. doi: 10.1007/s10342-017-1087-7
Speich, M.J.R.; Lischke, H.; Zappa, M., 2018: Testing an optimality-based model of rooting zone water storage capacity in temperate forests. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22, 7: 4097-4124. doi: 10.5194/hess-22-4097-2018
Speich, M.J.R.; Zappa, M.; Lischke, H., 2018: Sensitivity of forest water balance and physiological drought predictions to soil and vegetation parameters – A model-based study. Environmental Modelling and Software, 102: 213-232. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.01.016
Shifley, S.R.; He, H.S.; Lischke, H.; Wang, W.J.; Jin, W.; Gustafson, E.J.; Thompson, J.R.; Thompson III., F.R.; Dijak, W.D.; Yang, J., 2017: The past and future of modeling forest dynamics: from growth and yield curves to forest landscape models. Landscape Ecology, 32, 7: 1307-1325. doi: 10.1007/s10980-017-0540-9
He, H.S.; Gustafson, E.J.; Lischke, H., 2017: Modeling forest landscapes in a changing climate: theory and application. Landscape Ecology, 32, 7: 1299-1305. doi: 10.1007/s10980-017-0529-4
Lischke, H.; Löffler, T.J., 2017: Finding all multiple stable fixpoints of n-species Lotka–Volterra competition models. Theoretical Population Biology, 115: 24-34. doi: 10.1016/j.tpb.2017.02.001
Normand, S.; Zimmermann, N.E.; Schurr, F.M.; Lischke, H., 2014: Demography as the basis for understanding and predicting range dynamics. Ecography, 37, 12: 1149-1154. doi: 10.1111/ecog.01490
Snell, R.S.; Huth, A.; Nabel, J.E.M.S.; Bocedi, G.; Travis, J.M.J.; Gravel, D.; Bugmann, H.; Gutiérrez, A.G.; Hickler, T.; Higgins, S.I.; Reineking, B.; Scherstjanoi, M.; Zurbriggen, N.; Lischke, H., 2014: Using dynamic vegetation models to simulate plant range shifts. Ecography, 37, 12: 1184-1197. doi: 10.1111/ecog.00580
Bugmann, H.; Brang, P.; Elkin, C.; Henne, P.; Jakoby, O.; Lévesque, M.; Lischke, H.; Psomas, A.; Rigling, A.; Wermelinger, B.; Zimmermann, N.E., 2014: Climate change impacts on tree species, forest properties, and ecosystem services. In: Raible, C.C.; Strassmann, K.M. (eds), 2014: CH2014-Impacts. Toward quantitative scenarios of climate change impacts in Switzerland. Bern, Switzerland, OCCR, FOEN, MeteoSwiss, C2SM, Agroscope, ProClim. 79-89.
Scherstjanoi, M.; Kaplan, J.O.; Lischke, H., 2014: Application of a computationally efficient method to approximate gap model results with a probabilistic approach. Geoscientific Model Development, 7, 4: 1543-1571. doi: 10.5194/gmd-7-1543-2014
Zurbriggen, N.; Nabel, J.E.M.S.; Teich, M.; Bebi, P.; Lischke, H., 2014: Explicit avalanche-forest feedback simulations improve the performance of a coupled avalanche-forest model. Ecological Complexity, 17: 56-66. doi: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2013.09.002
Walz, A.; Braendle, J.M.; Lang, D.J.; Brand, F.; Briner, S.; Elkin, C.; Hirschi, C.; Huber, R.; Lischke, H.; Schmatz, D.R., 2014: Experience from downscaling IPCC-SRES scenarios to specific national-level focus scenarios for ecosystem service management. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 86: 21-32. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.014
Scherstjanoi, M.; Kaplan, J.O.; Poulter, B.; Lischke, H., 2014: Challenges in developing a computationally efficient plant physiological height-class-structured forest model. Ecological Complexity, 19: 96-110. doi: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2014.05.009
Nabel, J.E.M.S.; Kirchner, J.W.; Zurbriggen, N.; Kienast, F.; Lischke, H., 2014: Extrapolation methods for climate time series revisited - spatial correlations in climatic fluctuations influence simulated tree species abundance and migration. Ecological Complexity, 20: 315-324. doi: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2014.02.006
Ammann, B.; Van Leeuwen, J.F.N.; Van der Knaap, W.O.; Lischke, H.; Heiri, O.; Tinner, W., 2013: Vegetation responses to rapid warming and to minor climatic fluctuations during the Late-Glacial Interstadial (GI-1) at Gerzensee (Switzerland). Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 391: 40-59. doi: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2012.07.010
Normand, S.; Randin, C.; Ohlemüller, R.; Bay, C.; Høye, T.T.; Kjær, E.D.; Körner, C.; Lischke, H.; Maiorano, L.; Paulsen, J.; Pearman, P.B.; Psomas, A.; Treier, U.A.; Zimmermann, N.E.; Svenning, J., 2013: A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 368, 1624: 20120479 (12 pp.). doi: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0479
Feurdean, A.; Bhawat, S.A.; Willis, K.J.; Birks, H.J.B.; Lischke, H.; Hickler, T., 2013: Tree migration-rates: narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates. PLoS One, 8, 8: e71797 (7 pp.). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0071797
Delzon, S.; Urli, M.; Samalens, J.; Lamy, J.; Lischke, H.; Sin, F.; Zimmermann, N.E.; Porté, A.J., 2013: Field evidence of colonisation by holm oak, at the northern margin of its distribution range, during the anthropocene period. PLoS One, 8, 11: e80443 (8 pp.). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0080443
Scherstjanoi, M.; Kaplan, J.O.; Thürig, E.; Lischke, H., 2013: GAPPARD: a computationally efficient method of approximating gap-scale disturbance in vegetation models. Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 5: 1517-1542. doi: 10.5194/gmd-6-1517-2013
Nabel, J.E.M.S.; Zurbriggen, N.; Lischke, H., 2013: Interannual climate variability and population density thresholds can have a substantial impact on simulated tree species' migration. Ecological Modelling, 257: 88-100. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.02.015
Lischke, H.; Von Grafenstein, U.; Ammann, B., 2013: Forest dynamics during the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling-Allerød at Gerzensee - a simulation study. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 391, B: 60-73. doi: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2012.12.001
Huber, R.; Rigling, A.; Bebi, P.; Brand, F.S.; Briner, S.; Buttler, A.; Elkin, C.; Gillet, F.; Grêt-Regamey, A.; Hirschi, C.; Lischke, H.; Scholz, R.W.; Seidl, R.; Spiegelberger, T.; Walz, A.; Zimmermann, W.; Bugmann, H., 2013: Sustainable land use in mountain regions under global change: synthesis across scales and disciplines. Ecology and Society, 18, 3: 36 (21 pp.). doi: 10.5751/ES-05499-180336
Ammann, B.; Van Raden, U.J.; Schwander, J.; Eicher, U.; Gilli, A.; Bernasconi, S.M.; Van Leeuwen, J.F.N.; Lischke, H.; Brooks, S.J.; Heiri, O.; Nováková, K.; Van Hardenbroek, M.; Von Grafenstein, U.; Belmecheri, S.; Van der Knaap, W.O.; Magny, M.; Eugster, W.; Colombaroli, D.; Nielsen, E.; ... Wright, H.E., 2013: Responses to rapid warming at termination 1a at gerzensee (Central Europe): primary succession, albedo, soils, lake development, and ecological interactions. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 391: 111-131. doi: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2013.11.009
Meier, E.S.; Lischke, H.; Schmatz, D.R.; Zimmermann, N.E., 2012: Climate, competition and connectivity affect future migration and ranges of European trees. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 2: 164-178. doi: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00669.x
Poulter, B.; Ciais, P.; Hodson, E.; Lischke, H.; Maignan, F.; Plummer, S.; Zimmermann, N.E., 2011: Plant functional type mapping for earth system models. Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 4: 993-1010. doi: 10.5194/gmd-4-993-2011
Rickebusch, S.; Lischke, H.; Bugmann, H.; Guisan, A.; Zimmermann, N.E., 2007: Understanding the low-temperature limitations to forest growth through calibration of a forest dynamics model with tree-ring data. Forest Ecology and Management, 246: 251-263. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2007.04.030
Rickebusch, S.; Gellrich, M.; Lischke, H.; Guisan, A.; Zimmermann, N.E., 2007: Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests. Ecological Modelling, 209: 157-168. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.06.027
Schmid, S.; Thürig, E.; Kaufmann, E.; Lischke, H.; Bugmann, H., 2006: Effect of forest management on future carbon pools and fluxes: A model comparison. Forest Ecology and Management, 237: 65-82. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2006.09.028
Lischke, H.; Zimmermann, N.E.; Bolliger, J.; Rickebusch, S.; Löffler, T.J., 2006: TreeMig: A forest-landscape model for simulating spatio-temporal patterns from stand to landscape scale. Ecological Modelling, 199: 409-420. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.11.046
Lischke, H.; Löffler, T., 2006: Intra-specific density dependence is required to maintain species diversity in spatio-temporal forest simulations with reproduction. Ecological Modelling, 198: 341-361. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.05.005
Heiri, C.; Bugmann, H.; Tinner, W.; Heiri, O.; Lischke, H., 2006: A model-based reconstruction of Holocene treeline dynamics in the Central Swiss Alps. Journal of Ecology, 94, 1: 206-216. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2005.01072.x
Neilson, R.P.; Pitelka, L.F.; Solomon, A.M.; Nathan, R.; Midgley, G.F.; Fragoso, J.M.V.; Lischke, H.; Thompson, K., 2005: Forecasting regional to global plant migration in response to climate change. BioScience, 55, 9: 749-759. doi: 10.1641/0006-3568(2005)055[0749:Frtgpm]2.0.Co;2
Lischke, H., 2005: Modeling tree species migration in the Alps during the Holocene: What creates complexity?. Ecological Complexity, 2, 2: 159-174. doi: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2004.11.009
Bolliger, J.; Lischke, H.; Green, D.G., 2005: Simulating the spatial and temporal dynamics of landscapes using generic and complex models. Ecological Complexity, 2, 2: 107-116. doi: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2004.11.005
Siemens, D.H.; Lischke, H.; Maggiulli, N.; Schürch, S.; Roy, B.A., 2003: Cost of resistance and tolerance under competition: the defense-stress benefit hypothesis. Evolutionary Ecology, 17, 3: 247-263. doi: 10.1023/A:1025517229934
Keller, F.; Lischke, H.; Mathis, T.; Möhl, A.; Wick, L.; Ammann, B.; Kienast, F., 2002: Effects of climate, fire, and humans on forest dynamics: forest simulations compared to the palaeological record. Ecological Modelling, 152: 109-127. doi: 10.1016/S0304-3800(02)00011-X
Lischke, H.; Lotter, F.; Fischlin, A., 2002: Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data. Ecological Modelling, 150: 1-21. doi: 10.1016/S0304-3800(02)00013-3
Badeck, F.-W.; Lischke, H.; Bugmann, H.; Hickler, T.; Hönninger, K.; Lasch, P.; Lexer, M.J.; Mouillot, F.; Schaber, J.; Smith, B., 2001: Tree species composition in european pristine forests: comparison of stand data to model predictions. Climatic Change, 51: 307-347. doi: 10.1023/A:1012577612155
Lischke, H., 2001: New developments in forest modeling: convergence between applied and theoretical approaches. Natural Resource Modeling, 14, 1: 71-102.
Löffler, T.J.; Lischke, H., 2001: Incorporation and Influence of Variability in an Aggregated Forest Model. Natural Resource Modeling, 14, 1: 103-137.
Mathis, T.; Keller, F.; Möhl, A.; Wick, L.; Lischke, H., 2001: Influence of Climate, Species Immigration and Men on Forest Dynamics in Northern Italy, from 6000 Cal. BP to Today. Advances in Global Change Research, 9: 195-208.
Lischke, H.; Löffler, T.J.; Fischlin, A., 1998: Aggregation of Individual Trees and Patches in Forest Succession Models: Capturing Variability with Height Structured, Random, Spatial Distributions. Theoretical Population Biology, 54: 213-226. doi: 10.1006/tpbi.1998.1378
Lischke, H.; Löffler, T.J.; Fischlin, A., 1997: Calculating temperature dependence over long time periods: a comparison and study of methods. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 86: 169-181. doi: 10.1016/S0168-1923(97)00015-4
Lischke, H.; Löffler, T.J.; Fischlin, A., 1997: Calculating temperature dependence over long time periods: derivation of methods. Ecological Modelling, 98: 105-122. doi: 10.1016/S0304-3800(96)01907-2
Further scientific publications
Jakoby, O.; Stadelmann, G.; Lischke, H.; Wermelinger, B., 2016: Les scolytes et la sensibilité de l'épicéa aux infestations dans le contexte des changements climatiques. In: Pluess, A.R.; Augustin, S.; Brang, P.; Office fédéral de l’environnement OFEV,Berne; Institut fédéral de recherches sur la forêt (eds), 2016: Forêts et changements climatiques. Éléments pour des stratégies d'adaptation. Berne, Stuttgart, Vienne, Haupt. 251-269.
Jakoby, O.; Stadelmann, G.; Lischke, H.; Wermelinger, B., 2016: Borkenkäfer und Befallsdisposition der Fichte im Klimawandel. In: Pluess, A.R.; Augustin, S.; Brang, P.; Bundesamt für Umwelt BAFU,Bern; Eidgenössische Forschungsanstalt für Wald,Schnee und Landschaft WSL,Birmensdorf (eds), 2016: Wald im Klimawandel. Grundlagen für Adaptationsstrategien. Bern, Stuttgart, Wien, Haupt. 247-265.
Settele, J.; Scholes, R.; Betts, R.A.; Bunn, S.; Leadley, P.; Nepstad, D.; Overpeck, J.T.; Taboada, M.A.; Adrian, R.; Allen, C.; Anderegg, W.; Bellard, C.; Brando, P.; Chini, L.P.; Courchamp, F.; Foden, W.; Gerten, D.; Goetz, S.; ... Golding, N., 2014: Terrestrial and Inland Water Systems. In: Levy, A.N. (eds), 2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 271-359.
Nabel, J.E.M.S.; Lischke, H., 2013: Up-scaling of spatially explicit and linked time- and space-discrete models simulating vegetation dynamics under climate change. In: Page, B.; Fleischer, A.G.; Göbel, J.; Wohlgemuth, V. (eds), 2013: EnviroInfo2013 - Environmental Informatics and Renewable Energie. Part 1. 27th International Conference on Environmental Informatics for Environmental Protection, Hamburg. 842-850.
Schattan, P.; Zappa, M.; Lischke, H.; Bernhard, L.; Thürig, E.; Diekkrüger, B., 2013: An approach for transient consideration of forest change in hydrological impact studies. In: 2013: Climate and Land Surface Changes in Hydrology, Proceedings. H<sub>01</sub>, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly, Gothenburg. 311-319.
Nabel, J.E.M.S.; Zurbriggen, N.; Lischke, H., 2012: Impact of species parameter uncertainty in simulations of tree species migration with a spatially linked dynamic model. In: Seppelt, R.; Voinov, A.A.; Lange, S.; Bankamp, D. (eds), 2012: iEMSs 2012 - Managing Resources of a Limited Planet: Proceedings of the 6th Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society. 6th Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society: Managing Resources of a Limited Planet, iEMSs 2012, Leipzig. 909-916.
Goetz, S.J.; Epstein, H.E.; Bhatt, U.S.; Jia, G.J.; Kaplan, J.O.; Lischke, H.; Yu, Q.; Bunn, A.; Lloyd, A.H.; Alcarez-Segura, D.; Beck, P.S.A.; Comiso, J.J.; Raynolds, M.K.; Walker, D.A., 2011: Recent Changes in Arctic Vegetation: Satellite Observations and Simulation Model Predictions. In: Gutman, G.; Reissell, A. (eds), 2011: Eurasian Arctic Land Cover and Land Use in a Changing Climate. Dordrecht; Heidelberg, Springer. 9-36. doi: 10.1007/978-90-481-9118-5_2
Walz, A.; Brand, F.; Braendle, J.; Briner, S.; Elkin, C.; Hirschi, C.; Lischke, H.; Schmatz, D.; Lang, D., 2010: Do all mountain regions react upon the same drivers of change? Or: How to customise IPCC scenarios to regional level analysis?. In: Centre for Mountain Studies, M.R.I. (eds), 2010: roceeding of the Global Change and World's Mountain Conference in Perth Scotland. Global change and world's mountain conference, Perth, Scotland, September 26-30, 2010. (3 pp.).
Epstein, H.E.; Kaplan, J.O.; Lischke, H.; Yu, Q., 2007: Simulating Future Changes in Arctic and Subarctic Vegetation. Computing in Science & Engineering, 13-23. doi: 10.1109/Mcse.2007.84
Lischke, H.; Bolliger, J.; Seppelt, R., 2007: Dynamic Spatio-temporal Landscape Models. In: Kienast, F.; Wildi, O.; Ghosh, S. (eds), 2007: A Changing World. Challenges for Landscape Research. Dordrecht, Springer. 273-296.
Lischke, H.; Löffler, T.J.; Thornton, P.E.; Zimmermann, N.E., 2007: Model Up-scaling in landscape research. In: Kienast, F.; Wildi, O.; Ghosh, S. (eds), 2007: A Changing World. Challenges for Landscape Research. Dordrecht, Springer. 249-272.
Zimmermann, N.; Bolliger, J.; Gehrig-Fasel, J.; Guisan, A.; Kienast, F.; Lischke, H.; Rickebusch, S.; Wohlgemuth, T., 2006: Wo wachsen die Bäume in 100 Jahren?. In: 2006: Wald und Klimawandel. Forum für Wissen 2006, WSL Birmensdorf. 63-71.
Wohlgemuth, T.; Bugmann, H.; Lischke, H.; Tinner, W., 2006: Wie rasch ändert sich die Waldvegetation als Folge von raschen Klimaänderungen?. In: 2006: Wald und Klimawandel. Forum für Wissen 2006, WSL Birmensdorf. 7-16.
Lischke, H., 2004: Simulation of Dynamic Tree Species Patterns in the Alpine Region of Valais (Switzerland) during the Holocene. In: Pahl-Wostl, C.; Schmidt, S.; Rizzoliand, A.E.; Jakeman, A.J. (eds), 2004: Complexity and Integrated Resources Management. Transactions vol. 2. 2nd Niennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, Osnabrück. 908-913.
Lischke, H.; Zierl, B., 2002: Feedback between structured vegetation and soil water in a changing climate: A simulation study. In: Beniston, M. (eds), 2002: Climatic Change: Implications for the Hydrological Cycle and for Water Management. Dordrecht; Boston, Kluwer Academic. 349-377.
Zierl, B.; Lischke, H., 2002: Trends in drought in Swiss forested ecosystems. In: Beniston, M. (eds), 2002: Climatic Change: Implications for the Hydrological Cycle and for Water Management. Dordrecht; Boston, Kluwer Academic. 329-347.
Brassel, P.; Lischke, H. (eds), 2001: Swiss National Forest Inventory: methods and models of the second assessment. Birmensdorf, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL. 336 p.
Lischke, H., 2001: Propagation of data uncertainty through models. In: Brassel, P.; Lischke, H. (eds), 2001: Swiss National Forest Inventory: Methods and Models of the Second Assessment. Birmensdorf, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL. 306-320.
Lischke, H.; Brassel, P., 2001: Derived Variables and Models. In: Brassel, P.; Lischke, H. (eds), 2001: Swiss National Forest Inventory: Methods and Models of the Second Assessment. Birmensdorf, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL. 151-161.
Lischke, H.; Guisan, A.; Fischlin, A.; Williams, J.; Bugmann, H., 1998: Vegetation responses to climate change in the Alps: modeling Studies. In: Cebon, P.; Dahinden, U.; Davies, H.; Imboden, D.; Jaeger, C. (eds), 1998: Views from the Alps. Regional Perspectives on Climate Change. Cambridge, Massachusetts; London, MIT Press. 309-350.
Magazine article and brochures
Jakoby, O.; Wermelinger, B.; Stadelmann, G.; Lischke, H., 2015: Borkenkäfer im Klimawandel - Modellierung des künftigen Befallsrisikos durch den Buchdrucker (Ips typographus). 45 p.
Lischke, H., 1998: Simulationsstudien der Reaktion auf einen schnellen Klimawechsel. Zusammensetzung der Arten im Schweizer Wald. Kompetenz-Zentrum Holz, 6, 2: 12-14.